On-chain analyst Cauê Oliveira says benchmark cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) could see “maximum pressure” later in the year, highlighting the region around $14,500-$10,000 as the likely bottom for the 2022 bear market.
In a research piece titled ‘Bear Market Rally or the start of a new Bull Market?’, the BlockTrends analyst notes that despite the pain that has characterised the dip from the all-time highs set in 2021, the bear market at its current outlook is “mild” compared to both 2014 and 2018.
What next: new low, bear market rally or new bull market?
Bitcoin has dropped more than 7% in the past 24 hours to currently trade near $21,760 across major cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms. The declines, which have mirrored losses in the equities market, come after a brief rally to highs above $25,000 last week – a rally that saw BTC break above the crucial 200-week moving average.
Overall though, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market remains in a markedly clear bear market trend, with lows of $17,600 the trough of a decline that ensued after bulls topped at highs above $69,000 in November last year.
Yet, at current levels, Bitcoin is about 23% up since the June 2022 lows. In hitting above $25k, the gains seen last week had pushed BTC more than 45% from that low.
For comparison, the 2014 bear market saw short term rallies of up to 83% – enough to convince some that the pain was over. The scenario also repeated in 2018, with bear market recovery including rallies of up to 65% before fresh pain took prices to new lows.
Oliveira, pointing to the previous outlook, suggests another “local sales exhaustion” might not translate to a new bull market trend but potentially open up room for a retest of even lower support levels.
If the current movement is repeated, we will find the region of maximum pressure at the end of the year, starting in October. Within a trading range between $10,000 – $14,500.”
Bear Market Rally or the start of a new Bull Market?🤔
By comparing the amplitude and duration of the last long bearish periods in Bitcoin, we can see how painful the current downward movement is.
See below my latest research analysis content in English 👇#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/BLRt76vzDo
— Cauê Oliveira 💊⚡ (@caueconomy) August 18, 2022
Notably, the dump to current lows or even below $20,000 may yet give way for fresh upside pressure and see BTC revisit recent highs. Bulls could even target fresh resistance in the $28k-$30k region (or higher).
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